Trouble in Transdniestria: Eastern Europe’s powder keg

It is undeniable that Transdniestria is an area that has caused instability both in Eastern Europe and the Balkans. Transdniestria is Russia’s bridgehead on the sovereign and independent territory of Moldova and is a card in Russia’s hands that gives it the opportunity to manipulate decisions that are made on the Dniester River’s right bank, in the Moldovan capital of Chisinau.

The Transdniestrian conflict has jeopardized the autonomy of the Republic of Moldova and is an impediment to political and social stabilization in the country and in the region. Russia’s policy in the region is centered on preserving its influence and perpetuating its military presence. Moldova has no primary energy resources and is forced to import 98% of its gas, electricity and coal from mostly CIS countries. This has created a state of dependence on the CIS, allowing Russia to use energy resources and Transdniestrian question as leverage when dealing with Moldova. Moldovan authorities only control the country’s eastern borders in theory for they are practically managed by the Tiraspol regime. On Transdniestria’s Eastern border, a conflict with Ukraine is brewing. Ukraine has its own interests in the region, which spur its foreign policy. Both the United States and the European Union also have tangible interests in the area, considering this breakaway territory as a buffer state between Europe and the Russian sphere of influence. All this factors and interwoven circumstances demonstrate the geo-strategic importance of Transdniestria for European security.

Just like Moldova, Transdniestria is also going into an electoral year. On March 28th, the election of the Transdniestrian president and deputies of local Councils will be held. At the moment, the basic Transdniestrian political landscape is composed of President Igor Smirnov’s party and the Obnovlenie (Renewal) party, led by Yevgheny Shevchiuc. But the main fight will take place next year, when the election for the post of head of state will take place. President Smirnov is relying on the social-democratic bloc and is hoping to defeat Obnovlenie to receive majority in the Supreme Soviet. Therefore, Obnovlenie wants to first strengthen control over parliament and then dedicate itself to attacking President Smirnov.

Regarding the possible settlement of the Transdniestrian dispute, it is not possible to talk as long as there persists an outside influence. The negotiations between Chisinau and the Tiraspol regime have brought few if any effects and Transdniestria continues to remain Europe’s political powder keg.

Eugen Bejenaru is a political observer.