Archive for December, 2009

Rapid changes in the global economy and international politics are raising once again an eternal issue in Russia: the country’s relations with Europe and with the Euro-Atlantic region as a whole. Of course, Russia partly belongs to this region, yet it cannot and does not want to join the West wholeheartedly — at least not yet. Meanwhile, this choice looks very different now compared with just a few years ago.

It is becoming obvious that the Euro-Atlantic world, whose economic and political model seemed so triumphant 20 years ago, is now lagging somewhat behind China and other Asian countries. So is Russia, where, despite encouraging talk about innovation-based development, the economy continues to demodernize as corruption has been allowed to metastasize and the country relies increasingly on its natural resource wealth. Indeed, it is Asia that has turned out to be the true winner of the Cold War.

These rising powers raise problems regarding Russia’s geostrategic choices. For the first time in decades, the values gap between Russia and the EU appears to be increasing. Europe is overcoming state nationalism, while Russia is building a nation state. Broken by history and not wishing to be ravaged by war again, Europeans have embraced compromise and renounced the direct use of force in international relations.

Russians, on the other hand, emphasize their “hard power,” including military force, because they know that they live in a dangerous world and have no one to hide behind. In addition, because of the country’s comparative lack of “soft power” — social, cultural and economic attractiveness — it stands ready to use the competitive advantages (that is, its resource wealth) available to it.

Non-Russian Europe should thank the Almighty for the presence of energy-rich Russia at its borders, while Russia should be thankful for having such wealthy customers. But the natural differences in the interests of energy consumers and producers have been given a corrosive political and security twist. One vivid example of this is the discussion about an “Energy NATO.”

Faced with the impossibility of advantageous accession to Euro-Atlantic institutions, Russia is drifting fast toward alignment with China — a “younger brother,” though a respected one. Russia’s “Asian choice” of today is not the same as the Slavophile or Eurasian choice of the past. On the surface, it looks like a choice in favor of a rapidly rising civilization. But the current estrangement from Europe — the cradle of Russian civilization and modernization — threatens Russia’s identity and will increase its geostrategic risks in the future.

Europe does not benefit from this estrangement either. It will continue to move toward beautiful decay — Venice writ large. The United States also loses. Without Russia, which will remain the world’s third-strongest power for the foreseeable future, it is impossible to solve the key problems of international security.

Read more here.

Germany is on the threshold of a tremendous upheaval, and 2010 will show how it will cope with the decline of old industries and the emergence of new ones. It will be a year of renewal for Germany, but also a year of uncertainty for companies and their employees. The foundations for the future of Germany are now being laid. Now is the time when German firms will find out which products remain globally competitive, and which ones won’t. It’s already been made clear that there’s no world market anymore for container ships, mass-produced clothing, mobile phones or consumer electronics made in Germany. Others can produce those things more cheaply, and better.

This crisis is accelerating the pace of structural change. These days, an increasing number of foreign competitors are capable of producing things that had previously been the domain of German companies. The crisis is exacerbating the process because it has made customers focus even more heavily on price, thereby subjecting businesses to merciless scrutiny in terms of their cost efficiency and quality.

So far, Germany, which has long been the world’s biggest exporter, has coped surprisingly well with the global downturn. Germany today is in a far better position than many had feared a year ago, when unemployment had been forecast to reach 5 million. The start of 2009 had been accompanied by gloomy predictions of mass layoffs and even social unrest. None of that happened. German consumers even carried on spending.

Until recently, many observers, especially Anglo-Saxon ones, had criticized the German economy as being too sluggish and unfit for the challenges of the 21st century. The welfare system, they said, was a major burden on Europe’s largest economy. But Germany’s “old economy” has so far performed well in this crisis, and its social safety net has helped to guarantee stability.

But the economic calm in Germany could be deceptive — because it’s financed by credit. The government has run up unprecedented debts to save the banking system and stimulate growth. New borrowing by the federal government alone will total almost €86 billion ($123 billion) in 2010. And the banks’ balance sheets still contain risks of several hundred billion euros.

Germany’s state finances will remain a problem for years. Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble will have to save €60 billion in the years 2011 through 2016 — that’s €10 billion a year — to bring the budget back in line with the EU’s deficit requirements and Germany’s own self-imposed deficit limits. Chancellor Angela Merkel’s new center-right government is worsening the budget problems with its plan to cut taxes by €20 billion beginning in 2011.

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It will take time before we achieve a robust common market in which labour and capital can flow freely.

The protocol signed in Arusha last month by the regional leaders reveals that free movement of workers and professionals will only come in phases, stretching all the way to 2015.

So far, Rwanda remains the only country in the region to have abolished all work permit requirements for East African community citizens. Existing restrictions on the buying and trading of shares and stocks within the region will also be lifted in phases.

The gradual pace at which the common market is being implemented notwithstanding, the Arusha protocol has made the EAC by far the most advanced trading bloc in Africa.

Indeed, the EAC is now way ahead of its two main rivals, the Common Market for Eastern Africa (Comesa) and the Southern Africa Development Community (SADC).

Emerging at a time when sub-Saharan Africa has multiple trading blocs with overlapping memberships, the EAC now has what it takes to play the role of an anchor between them.

However, this situation is beginning to create subterranean battles for loyalty, especially between Comesa, SADC and the EAC.

The saving grace is that Comesa has also turned unto a full customs union. Even more significant, it has borrowed the EAC common external tariff and adopted it as its own.

The implication is that it is now possible for Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, and Burundi to continue trading amongst themselves under the EAC customs union, while at the same time maintaining a preferential free trade area relationship under Comesa.

This is what the region should strive for in the medium term. More trade, not aid, is what will save Africa.

Read more here.

French President Nicolas Sarkozy faced an embarrassing setback Wednesday after the high court struck down a planned carbon tax to fight global warming, just days before it was to kick in, reports France 24.

The constitutional court ruled that too many exemptions to the tax on carbon dioxide emissions created inequalities and unfairly placed the burden of cutting down wasteful energy use on a minority of consumers.

Sarkozy had fiercely defended the measure in the face of strong public opposition, calling it a “revolutionary” approach in the fight against climate change and making it a pillar of his 2010 budget.

The court ruling was seen as a severe blow for the French president, coming less than two weeks after world leaders failed to reach a binding deal on climate change at the Copenhagen summit.

The right-wing government was forced to quickly go back to the drawing board and Prime Minister Francois Fillon announced that a new bill on the carbon tax would be submitted to cabinet next month.

“France has shown that it is a leader in the fight against climate change and it will remain at the forefront by presenting new legislation on January 20,” said government spokesman Luc Chatel.

In its ruling Tuesday, the Constitutional Council said the “large number of exemptions from the carbon tax runs counter to the goal of fighting climate change and violates the equality enjoyed by all in terms of public charges.”

Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab, the man charged with trying to blow up a US-bound airliner, was described yesterday by his teacher and classmate at the Yemeni language school where he studied as “quiet and smart but introverted”.

The Nigerian, who is accused of attempting to blow up a Northwest Airlines flight carrying 278 passengers and 11 crew from Amsterdam to Detroit, was in Yemen from August until December, the government confirmed, and studied at the the Sana’a Institute for the Arabic Language.

Matthew Salmon, a Canadian student who arrived in Yemen in September and who lived in the same house at the institute as Mr Abdulmutallab, said there was nothing suspicious about him and that he would regularly go to mosque five times a day.

“He was very quiet and polite,” Mr Salmon told The National. “He had been enrolled in the school, but had not been attending by the time I had arrived.

“We had a few conversations and they were basically on religion and he politely used to encourage me to read the Quran.

“When I heard about the attempt on board the aeroplane I was frightened, enraged, overwhelmed and confused. There was nothing suspicious about him. He always stayed to himself and did not interact with us; he would not join us at dinner.”

Mr Salmon, who was speaking from inside a yard at the school with a fellow western student, said he had asked Mr Abdulmutallab about when he planned to return home and he had said in one or two months.

The last time Mr Salmon saw Mr Abdulmutallab was on October 6 or 7.

Read more here.

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At the meeting with the British diplomat, the Iranian Foreign Ministry’s Deputy Director-General for West European Affairs, Aboulqassem Delfi, voiced Tehran’s strong protest against London’s meddling with Iran’s domestic affairs, especially the stances adopted and the remarks made by the British officials over the recent unrests in Tehran.

Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesman Ramin Mehman-Parast had earlier warned London against interference in Tehran’s internal affairs, and announced his ministry’s plans for calling the British envoy to Tehran to voice strong protest against the meddling remarks made by British Foreign Secretary David Miliband over the recent unrests in the Iranian capital.

The spokesman also described Miliband’s comments as “hasty and undiplomatic”, and called on London to review its policies towards Iran.

Miliband on Monday hailed what he called as the “great courage” of the Iranian pro-opposition supporters, and criticized Tehran for confronting the rioters, says Iran’s FARS News Agency.

Tehran’s police headquarters announced earlier that eight people were killed in clashes, but meantime underlined that the police forces neither used violence nor fired a single bullet during the Sunday unrests.

The unrests broke out after a number of supporters of Mir-Hossein Mousavi, a defeated candidate of the July presidential election in Iran, took to the streets in Tehran on a highly revered religious day commemorated by Shiites in Iran and across the world.

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• Iran issues ‘punch’ warning to UK (news.bbc.co.uk)

A fresh row between Russia and Ukraine over energy shipment fees – fast becoming something of a New Year’s tradition – has caused alarm in the European Union, as Moscow warned of possible oil supply cuts to central Europe.

On Monday (28 December), Slovakia – 97 percent dependent on Russian oil – held an emergency meeting of its security council, with Prime Minister Robert Fico saying the EU is at risk of disruptions in oil deliveries via the Druzhba oil pipeline from 1 January 2010.

“We first received information [about the Russian-Ukrainian dispute] during the Christmas holidays,” Mr Fico told journalists. He added that the Ukrainian request for higher transit fees was the core of the matter.

The European Commission later confirmed that Russian authorities had triggered an early warning mechanism – a system designed to ring alarm bells before taps are turned off – and gave notice of a possible disruption of crude oil supplies “in the coming days.”

“Several member states could be directly affected, notably Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic,” reads the commission internal note, seen by EUobserver.

The EU’s executive body has re-assured, however, that there is “no current threat to supplies to households or to businesses” as emergency oil stocks in the 27-nation bloc stand at comfortable level of 122 days of consumption.

Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic also report having sufficient reserves – 118, 94 and 101 days, respectively – figures well above the mandatory 90 days.

Read more here.

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The Italian government is seeking to verify whether or not a group linked to Al Qaeda may be responsible for the kidnapping of two Italians in Mauritania earlier this month, Foreign Minister Franco Frattini said.

On Sunday, a man claiming to be the media representative of Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb said the group had carried out the kidnapping and that it was in response to ”crimes committed by the Italian government in Afghanistan and Iraq.” Speaking on Italian television, Frattini said his ministry was first of all trying to ascertain the authenticity of the claim and that, in any case, Italy has no intention of negotiating with terrorists, reports ANSA.

“Anyone who has anything to do with terrorists helps them. And even if we were to say ‘we’ll talk’ just this one time, we would be legitimising a terrorist organisation,” the foreign minister added. Frattini said his ministry would continue to maintain a news black out on developments concerning the fate of Palermo resident Sergio Cicala, 64, and his Burkina Faso-born wife Philomene Kabouree. The couple was reported missing after their bullet-ridden camper van was discovered in Mauritania on December 20.The foreign minister explained last week that a total news blackout on efforts to contact the kidnappers and obtain the release of the hostages was essential to ensure their safety because ‘’suppositions only make the matter worse.”

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Hundreds of protesters are gathering in Cairo to mark the anniversary of the Israeli war on Gaza of last year, BBC News reports.

Their aim is to cross the Egyptian border and march into Gaza, a request that has been rejected by the Egyptian authorities because of the “sensitive situation” in the Palestinian territory, as the Egyptian foreign minister said.

A group of activists that reached the Sinai port of el-Arish was detained by the Egyptian police, while hundreds are camped in Cairo, in front of the United Nations mission, on a hunger strike to pressure the Egyptian government. Among them, there is even a 85-year-old American activist survivor of the Holocaust.

The Egyptian government is accusing the activists of trying to embarrass Egypt and willing a media exposure, al-Jazeera English reports.

Meanwhile, the “Viva Palestina” aid convoy led by the british MP George Galloway, has been blocked for five days in the Jordanian port-city of Aqaba. The organizers of the convoy planned to get on a ferry from Aqaba to the Sinai port of Nuweiba, then continue to the border city of Rafah and enter into the Gaza strip, but the Egyptian authorities denied its access five days ago.

After a Turkish mediation, the Egyptian authorities allowed the convoy to enter its Mediterranean port of El-Arish, which means that the convoy must now head to the Syrian port of Latakia and sail to el-Arish, and then continue via land to Gaza, al-Jazeera explains.

The organizers of the Gaza Freedom March are hoping to be able to cross the Palestinian border on December 31, in order to join the Palestinians in a “non-violent march from northern Gaza to the Israeli Erez border”.

The Gaza Strip is under a tight both Israeli and Egyptian blockade, that is limiting the entry of food, medicines and other supplies.

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